Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Exploring the Mystery of Pitch Counts

My knowledge on this subject is drawn largely from the excellent work and research of Ron Wolforth and his staff at the Texas Baseball Ranch.

I have modified what Coach Wolforth has suggested only slightly in how I deal with pitchers who have gone over 30 pitches in an inning (allowing them to continue only if it is the first inning and the pitcher has demonstrated the ability to work through such struggles at the current level of competition).

My background as a baseball player is as a position player (1B/OF) and a hitter. So, I have come to the table on the subject of pitching from a different perspective, and in some ways, without what I view as the baggage of a lifetime of shifting views on trends in pitching.

Pitch counts are a strange and mysterious subject. They are treated as gospel, but few seem to understand them. There are "magic" numbers, such as 100 for a game that some will argue are never to be exceeded. No explanation is given for this magical line never to cross; it's just there, you see.

Still others argue that pitchers at various portions of a season are clearly only ready to throw 40, 50, 60, etc. pitches. How do they know this? Unless it's a knowledge of the demonstrated preparation of a specific pitcher at that point in the season, truly it's hard to tell.

I believe there are a couple of concepts that are really central to understanding the issue of pitch counts: 1) First and foremost, how much a pitcher throws on his own and in practice is crucial to developing the arm strength to throw longer and deeper into games; and 2) how a pitch count is accumulated is more important than what a pitcher's total count is.

To put these two concepts together, to know whether a pitcher is gassed after throwing 100 pitches, you need to know how much work he has put in -- practice and game work -- during a particular season and also how many innings he has thrown during the game at issue. For instance, assuming we are at least at mid-season, a pitcher who has gone 7 innings and thrown 100 pitches has really not extended himself such that he is at any real risk of injury. A well-conditioned pitcher can throw 12-15 pitches per inning for quite a long time, given the fact that he is resting and recovering while his teammates are batting.

Take for instance the "scandal" caused by University of Texas pitcher Austin Wood, who threw 169 pitches in a relief outing in a 2009 NCAA regional game (the longest game in NCAA history, a 25-inning UT 3-2 win over Boston College). Wood came on in relief with a runner on second in the seventh inning, and then ... he pitched the next 12 1/3 innings before he gave up his first hit, a single in the bottom of the 19th. He struck out 14, walked four and gave up two hits in 13 innings. Making Wood’s performance even more impressive was that the game was on the line in every inning. And all of this came after he pitched two innings the night before in a 3-1 victory over Army.

Austin Wood was able to do what he did (and his arm stayed attached to his body as he and the Horns went on to the CWS) because he was conditioned and also because he pitched efficiently through his night ... and early morning ... of work. He averaged about 13 pitches per inning. So, what a lot of people in the pitching world thought was scandal was no scandal. If a pitcher is at 15 or under pitches per inning, with much conditioning at all he can pitch a good long while. Remember, the pitcher is resting between innings. With warmups, the infielders are nearly throwing as much.

Most coaches, especially summer coaches, pay very little attention to anything but the total pitch count (and then, even the total is often monitored haphazardly). Neglecting how a total is accumulated is a mistake. What Ron's research has shown (and my experience has confirmed) is that if a pitcher throws 20 or more pitches in an inning, he is laboring in that inning such as to increase stress on his arm and body and decrease his effectiveness. If he follows such an inning with another 20-pitch inning, it is probably time for the pitcher to come out of the game. I have followed this formula and found it to be sound over the years.

Coach Wolforth also suggests removing any pitcher following any inning in which he throws 30 or more pitches in an inning, based on the fact that the pitcher is tired and now more susceptible to injury. I have followed this rule with the one exception noted above; that is, if we are dealing with a pitcher who has shown the ability to recover from jams at the current level of competition then I will allow him to continue if and only if the 30-pitch inning occurs in the first inning that he pitches.

On the Mustangs, we track a pitcher's per-inning count to see how he is trending. If a pitchers count-per-inning starts to creep up then that is a factor indicating that his work for the day may be done. But to me, this part is art. The foregoing 20- and 30-pitch markers, however, are science (or rules in my book), and I adhere to them as such.

I use these rules as markers and extend our pitchers total counts out as we move through the season. As for the total counts, that is based upon the pitcher's experience, work history, and demonstrated effectiveness during a particular game.

And of course, pitch counts are only part of a story as to whether a pitcher continues. For instance, if your count is down but your fielders are dodging bb's with every pitch, well, you get the picture.

For those of you playing elsewhere during the fall and summer, I think it's important that you know this information and see how other coaches are handling pitching staffs. In the end, we want to be getting better each practice and game, but we also want to keep our arms and bodies healthy for the longterm.

See you on the field,