So, what am I thinking? I'll tell you. A lot of it is hunch. Hunches are knowledge in raw form, and a lot of mine are formed after watching and studying you players and our opponents intently.
First of all, we are assuming that we have a runner on base that is stretching his lead, is engaged and working to get a good jump, and has enough speed to steal the base.
But what specifically am I looking at and for? First, I am looking at the catcher. What does his throw down look like? Is he quick? Is he accurate? I am always looking at the opposing catcher throwing down between innings. And I encourage you to do the same. And you catchers ... I encourage you to mean business on your throwdowns, both to build good habits and send a message. No time for playing, tempting or decoying. I want the opposition to be counting the cost. The opposing coaching staff is watching.
Also, I am looking to see what the pitcher's move looks like. Is he quick to to the bag? How quick is he to the plate? Is he predictable in his move pattern, looks, etc., and/or his pitch pattern?
What is the count? Usually, the first pitch can be risky, unless we have seen the pitcher for a number of hitters. We are looking for a good running count, and what is that? This always used to perplex me, because it's one of those things that baseball people talk about but don't explain. Plus, it's different in MLB than high school. So, what is a good count to run? In high school baseball?
I think a good count to run is one in which -- in our judgment -- the pitcher is going to give us a pitch that gives us a reasonable opportunity to take the bag. Does that help? Let me explain further.
One thing I am looking for is a count when the pitcher is likely to throw a breaking ball. A lot of high school pitchers have predictable patterns in this regard, so you know the drill. Sometimes, a pitcher will make a move (or two) to the bag before throwing a curve to hold the runner close.
We also are looking for a count where it's unlikely the opposition may pitch out, although the pitchout is used infrequently in high school baseball.
A couple of counts that can work to steal second ... 3-1 and 3-2. In either case, if the pitcher misses we are there, any way. Also, both are hitters counts so a good pitch is likely to be swung at, as well, and create another visual obstruction for the catcher.
Yes, there are a number of factors. And yet, there's more.
What about the situation? Are we stealing second or third? How many outs are there? What's the score? Where are we in our lineup? Is our hitter a lefty (makes it easier for us to steal 2B) or a righty (makes it easier for us to take 3B)? Is the pitcher struggling, i.e., is he likely to walk our hitter and get us to the next base for free?
Let's break down a few of these variables ... who is up for us? Are we at the bottom of our order? All things being equal, we want to start innings with an ideal situation, i.e., our leadoff hitter starting the inning as compared to #8 or #9.
Also, consider ... is the hitter at the plate ... and maybe the one on deck likely to knock in the runner from where he is now? Do we need to move up? And ... here's another one ... is the catcher a weak receiver and/or the pitcher wild such that he might give us the opportunity to move without risking a stolen base?
On the other hand, getting to a position where we can score on one of those passed balls/wild pitches can be big, too.
Wow, can you tell there is a lot to be thinking about and absorbing? That's why we are paying attention when we are in the dugout. On deck. On base. Everywhere.
Moving to second when we can is almost always advisable. Why? Well, a single is going to score most runners from second. If we have two outs in the inning and we are in a good spot in the order to begin the next inning with the hitter on deck ... and our runner on first has some speed ... it's an opportunity to take second. Consider, too, that taking second removes both the double play and the easier force play in the middle of the diamond on a ground ball. It forces the defense to go all the way across the diamond to first for the out.
But what if it's a lefty on the mound? What if we can't get a good jump? What if the catcher is excellent? Well, we factor in all of that, too.
Third base presents a different set of circumstances. As a general rule, we want to avoid making either the first out (slowing a rally) or last out (ending a rally) at either third or home.
But this is a general, not an absolute, rule. Also, we generally want to steal third with a right-hand hitter at the plate, rather than a lefty. Why? The lefty affords the catcher a clear view of third base.
Pitchers will forget that runner at 2B and create an opportunity for us. Be ready.
Then again, if the pitcher is allowing the runner to get a huge lead off of second, then ... that's another factor.
Getting to third base in high school baseball is more valuable than getting to 3B in MLB or college ball. Why? Defensive lapses (opportunities for us) are more common, and a tag play at the plate can be challenging for a high school defense. Also, passed balls and wild pitches -- great scoring opportunities for us -- are much more common, as well.
Keep your head on straight ... Situation, Sign, Stretch (your lead), Say it again ... keep that ticker going ... as well as the parade around the bases.
And if you ever get the green light ... keep it to yourself. You know what I mean.
See you on the field.
